IBM Watson and Healthcare Big Data Analytics

Presiding over the ceremonial opening of the new IBM Watson Health global headquarters in Cambridge, Mass., IBM’s senior vice president Mike Rhodin highlighted the sometime-neglected focus of the effort to mine the ever-increasing quantities of health data. “We know that technology alone isn’t the answer,” said Rhodin. “At its core, Watson Health provides the means to orient the entire system around us.”

In a telephone conversation before the event, Dr. Lynda Chin, associate vice chancellor for health transformation at the University of Texas system, voiced a similar perspective: “Technology and innovation are the instigators for change, but they alone won’t do it. We have to think about implementation, about translating the technology into desired outcomes. Implementation is never just a technology play.”

Before assuming her current position in April, Dr. Chin was the founding chair of Genomic Medicine and scientific director of the Institute for Applied Cancer Science at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center. Two years ago, IBM and MD Anderson announced the Oncology Expert Advisor (OEA), based on IBM’s Watson data analytics engine, an expert system enabling clinicians to “uncover valuable insights from the cancer center’s rich patient and research databases.”

Dr. Chin reports that MD Anderson has by now developed two “apps,” each dealing with a different type of cancer, and is in the process of developing a third one, with each successive cancer-specific solution taking less time to develop. The ultimate goal is to make these solutions available to MD Anderson’s national and international network, so general oncologists in remote hospitals and clinics could tap into its accumulated and evolving expertise.  “To show that the OEA is a knowledge democratization tool, we have to build a network cloud infrastructure to support it. The OEA will not be useful if it doesn’t fit into the everyday life of the general oncologist.”

To achieve that goal, MD Anderson has also partnered with PwC for the development of the cloud information interchange and with AT&T for a secure, dedicated network. It is now piloting its first network link, to one of its network partners in New Jersey.

The integration with the general oncologist’s workflow is moving the expert system from a research reference resource and clinical decision support tool to helping manage the care of specific patients. “The OEA is trained to simulate the exchange between a physician and an expert,” says Dr. Chin. “So for the OEA to work, it has to be connected to the EHR system so we can learn about the patient. The OEA is trained not only to understand the profile of the patient in terms of what is the appropriate evidence-based treatment options but also sharing the experience in managing patients on that type of therapy and helping the general oncologist manage it. It’s as if the oncologist has the ability to call up the expert 24/7 to ask for advice.”

Still, one of the lessons learned so far is that “there will always be a question the OEA was not trained on,” so a teleconferencing component has been built into the system.  Other lessons include the need to provide mobile-device-based solutions, the challenge of teaching the OEA the relative value of each piece of information, and that the expert system “is very valuable from a learning perspective,” as a teaching tool for doctors in training. It also turned out that the OEA is useful in helping research nurses screen patients for clinical trials. Before, the nurses were often considering only the trials they knew about. Now they have at their disposal a clinical trial recommendation engine that screens through all the available trials and an expert system that helps with monitoring the patients participating in the clinical trial.

The development of the OEA is a never-ending journey. Healthcare is a complex and constantly changing endeavor involving research and practice, experiments and established procedures, professionals, institutions, and providers of all sorts, and most important of all, the people they serve—both patients and everybody else trying to keep themselves healthy.  Over the last decade healthcare has gone, at long last, through rapid digitization, transforming mounds of paper into electronic records and introducing computers to many aspects of the physician’s work.

As in other fields, the introduction of computer technology provides opportunities for reducing costs and increasing quality and effectiveness, while at the same time increasing the potential for errors caused by over-reliance on technology and automation. Similarly, while digitization facilitates the collection and sharing of practical knowledge and research expertise, it also produces mountains of data that threaten to impede rather than accelerate progress.

IBM Watson helps in processing and analyzing this data and presenting it as confidence-level-ranked suggestions and recommendations.  At the IBM event on September 10, Dr. Jeff Burns described how OPENPediatrics doesn’t tell the physician “do this,” but rather “tells the doctor what to think about.” OPENPediatrics is a Boston Children’s Hospital-led initiative bringing medical knowledge to pediatric caregivers worldwide (currently reaching 900 hospitals in 127 countries). IBM and Boston Children’s Hospital plan to develop “solutions for commercialization, initially pursuing applications in personalized medicine, heart health and critical care,” leveraging Watson’s genomic, image, and streaming analytics capabilities.

At the new Watson Health headquarters in Cambridge, Mass., Dr. Watson—and 700 other IBM employees—will be joining more than 600 Massachusetts-based life sciences companies and research organizations employing about 60,000 people. IBM plans to open there an interactive Watson Health Experience Center (a demonstration center for IBM customers) and establish a dedicated Health Research lab.

“We have to do it as a community,” Mike Rohdin declared at the event. Other participants, executives from Yale University, Sage Bionetworks, Medtronic, CVS Health, Modernizing Medicine and Teva Pharmaceuticals, echoed the sentiment. And Like Rhodin, they stressed putting people at the center of their efforts to improve healthcare, highlighting the specific goal of helping patients manage their disease.

Digitization—and smart analysis of the data it generates—helps in building a community around shared knowledge. The competition for profits and prestige among healthcare providers, however, while driving the innovation that may lead to better healthcare, also could stand in the way of cooperation and knowledge sharing. It may also lead to hasty development of technology-based solutions without a careful evaluation of the actual benefits and potential risks. Let’s hope that IBM and its partners will do everything they can to uphold the medical community’s tradition of controlled experiments and contributing to the ever-growing public repository of knowledge of what works and what doesn’t work in healthcare.

Originally published on Forbes.com

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The global UAV drones market to grow 32% annually to reach $5.59 billion by 2020

The $599.99 IRIS+ from 3D Robotics, "a robot that will automatically fly itself where you tell it to go, while keeping a camera dead steady"

The $599.99 IRIS+ from 3D Robotics, “a robot that will automatically fly itself where you tell it to go, while keeping a camera dead steady”

MarketsAndMarkets:

Before 2014, the use of UAV drones for commercial applications was highly regulated in countries such as the United States. Post 2014, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has relaxed the norms for the use of UAV drones for commercial applications, and also FAA has started giving exemptions to companies to make commercial use of drones under Section 333 with some restrictions. As of September 2, 2015, FAA has granted 1,439 exemptions for the commercial use of drones. The global UAV drones market is expected to reach $5.59 billion by 2020, and it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 32.22% between 2015 and 2020. Among all the commercial applications, precision agriculture application is expected to grow at the highest CAGR of 42.25% during the forecast period.

The rotary blade drones market held the largest market share in 2014, and it is expected to reach $4.93 billion by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 31.42% between 2015 and 2020. Rotary blade drones are widely preferred by the professionals from the media and entertainment industry for video shooting and photography.

The UAV drones market is dominated by the key players such as DJI (China), Parrot S.A. (France), 3D Robotics Inc. (U.S.), and PrecisionHawk (U.S.), among others.

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2 Solutions to Demand for Tech Skills: Coding Bootcamps and Computer Science Education Starting in Elementary Schools

CodingBootcamps

LinkedIn Official Blog:

Technical talent is in high demand. As of publishing this post, a LinkedIn job search for “Software Engineers” in the US reveals more than 100,000 open jobs. Adding a couple more tech-related roles (“User Designer,” “Data Scientist”) increases the total to more than 200,000 job openings. Job seekers looking to meet job requirements can enroll in a Master’s degree program, but that comes with a 2-year opportunity cost. Now, a shorter path is emerging: fully immersive coding bootcamps.

Coding bootcamps typically last 6-12 weeks and require participants to show up to a class in person. Bootcamps are a relatively new model, but they’re a growing trend that could help close the skills gap. Tapping into the Economic Graph, we compiled aggregated data on over 150 bootcamp programs and more than 25,000 LinkedIn members who have indicated they are attending or have attended bootcamps to identify emerging trends.

In 2011, fewer than one hundred LinkedIn members indicated they had graduated from bootcamp programs. In 2014, more than 8,000 members completed coding bootcamps and added them to their profiles, reflecting a rise in acceptance of the bootcamp model. The number of bootcamp graduates in the first six months of 2015 has nearly surpassed all of 2014. At this rate, we can expect to see more than 16,000 graduates by the end of 2015 — more than double the total number of 2014 graduates.

An Open Letter from the Nation’s Tech and Business Leaders: Why Computer Science for All is good for all

Yesterday morning, Mayor Bill de Blasio took to the stage to announce the nation’s most ambitious and far-reaching technology education effort to date: New York City will deliver computer science education to every student in each of the City’s public elementary, middle, and high schools by 2025 through its new Computer Science for All initiative.

The impact of this investment cannot be overstated.

One in five New York City businesses employs tech talent, fueling the growth of a tech sector that today represents nearly 300,000 jobs and $30 billion in annual wages. Between 2007 and 2014, tech employment in the City grew 57 percent, nearly six times faster than overall citywide employment. And by the year 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor projects there to be more than 1.4 million computer specialist job openings nationwide.

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Steve Papa: Data volume is cumulative, analyses possibilities are combinatoric (video)

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgKSCFBZzlM?rel=0]

Steve Papa is an active founder and venture capitalist. As founder of Parallel Wireless he is making the deployment of the carrier-grade LTE RAN as easy as deploying enterprise Wi-Fi. As investor, he is active both as a founding investor and a board partner for Andreessen Horowitz.

Previously he founded and led the big data database company Endeca until it was Oracle’s largest private company acquisition, reported at $1.1 billion when announced in 2011. Endeca launched at Demo 2001 and pioneered the now ubiquitous faceted search and query. He got his high-tech career started at Inktomi where he created the company’s carrier class caching business and then helped launch Akamai. Steve studied at Princeton and Harvard where is an advisor to both their respective entrepreneurship programs.

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The Virtual Reality Landscape (Infographic)

VirtualReality

Phil Orr and Max Wessel, Sapphire Ventures:

..we believe three characteristics of VR will help it carve out its position in the world of computing. These characteristics hint at Neal Stephenson’s metaverse. Namely, they are presence, scale, and interaction design.

  • Presence is an Oculus-coined term that effectively translates to a sense of being there. With presence, comes focus and attention. It’s impossible to ignore a piece of content when it’s your reality. It’s also proven that presence changes the way people internalize information and react emotionally to stimulus. That level of intellectual involvement will impact what we can do with software.
  • Scale is something we all understand. It’s difficult to imagine what the interior of a house will look like from a diagram on the screen of an iPhone. It’s easy for an architect to help you imagine how the interior of a house might look when you can walk around inside of it.
  • Interaction design changes fundamentally when your body becomes the controller. Today, when you use a computer for training or simulation, you interact with it using a mouse or a keyboard. It can inform you about different environments, but it does little to teach you how to execute tasks physically in the real world. VR changes that. When a system is designed to monitor movement on hundreds of different points on your body, it can help train you to do everything from perform surgical motions to throwing a football.
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Startups Disrupting Apple (Infographic)

CBInsights_ios

CB Insights:

…we used CB Insights data and analysis to dig in and see which startups have been peeling away at some of the categories served by default iOS apps… We found dozens of investor-backed private companies developing apps that would like to displace Apple’s stock apps and knock them off the home screen. In all, we identified 44 startups attacking iOS, with music, messaging, and health seeming to be the three most contested categories.

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6 Highlights of a New Survey on Big Data Analytics

A new survey of 316 executives from large global companies, conducted by Forbes Insights and sponsored by Teradata in partnership with McKinsey, provides a fresh look at the state of big data analytics implementations. Here are the highlights.

The hype gone, big data is alive and doing well

About 90% of organizations report medium to high levels of investment in big data analytics, and about a third call their investments “very significant.” Most important, about two-thirds of respondents report that big data and analytics initiatives have had a significant, measurable impact on revenues.

59% of the executives surveyed consider big data and analytics either a top five issue or the single most important way to achieve a competitive advantage. This attitude is slightly more prevalent in financial services and much more prevalent in Asia-Pacific, where 41% of executives (compared to the survey average of 21%) consider big data and analytics the single most important way for companies to gain a competitive advantage.

Figure 4

The right organizational culture is key to big data success

No matter how many times you say “data-driven,” decisions are still not based on data. Sounds familiar? 51% of executives said that adapting and refining a data-driven strategy is the single biggest cultural barrier and 47% reported putting big data learning into action as an operational challenge. 43% cited fostering a culture that rewards use of data and valuing creativity and experimentation with data as key challenges.

Companies that don’t get the data-driven culture right tend to fall behind their peers. 47% of executives surveyed do not think that their companies’ big data and analytics capabilities are above par or best of breed. And the survey found that the more the respondents know about big data and analytics, the less likely they are to judge the organization as above average or best of breed. For example, among data scientists, only 8% call their organizations best of breed and 10% think they are above average.

Big data is top of mind when the CEO loves data

If you take big data analytics seriously, you get results. 51% of organizations where big data is viewed as the single most important way to gain competitive advantage are led by CEOs who personally focus on big data initiatives. In organizations where big data is viewed as a top-five issue that gets significant time and attention from top leadership, the sponsor is typically one level below top leadership. Finally, companies that have established data and analytics positions at the CxO level are more likely to have above average data analytics capabilities.

Figure 5

Going from the right attitude to the right action is a long big data journey

Even if you have top leadership sponsorship and the right culture, getting data to drive action and strategy is a challenge.  48% of executives surveyed regard making fact-based business decisions based on data as a key strategic challenge, and 43% cite developing a corporate strategy as a significant hurdle. Other obstacles to realizing the benefits of big data analytics are focusing resources to get the most insights from data (43%) and viewing data as a valuable asset (41%).

Figure 2

There’s gold in them thar brontobyte data mountains

The survey found that big data is driving opportunities for innovation in three key areas: creating new business models (54%); discovering new product offers (52%); and monetizing data to external companies (40%). To pursue these opportunities, companies that are gaining the most traction are looking beyond transactional data—exploring a wide variety of many data types.

The most-cited was location data (used to identify an electronic device’s physical location), collected by over half of the respondents, followed by text data (unstructured data like email messages, slides, Word documents, and instant messages). Social media is tracked and its unstructured data collected by 43% of companies surveyed and about a third finds golden nuggets in images, weblogs, videos, sensor data and speech files.

Big data miners still very much wanted

Realizing the business and innovation opportunities hidden in the mountains of data requires the right set of skills and experiences.  46% of the executives surveyed, however, reported that hiring the talent that can recognize innovations in data is a challenge.

Originally published on Forbes.com

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Startups Disrupting Education with New Technologies

CBInsights_Smart-VC-BSG

CB Insights:

Venture capital funding to education technology startups passed $1.6B last year, across 217 deals. With ed tech startup investing becoming so competitive and crowded, it’s important to know where top VCs are placing their bets…

Accel Partners, Felicis Ventures, and New Enterprise Associates are the most active smart VCs in ed tech, with more than 10 unique portfolio companies each in the area. The least active investors are Index Ventures and Battery Ventures. Two startups had the most unique smart VC investors, with 5 each: classroom-based community tool Edmodo and online learning content platform Knewton.

We identified six different ed tech markets that smart VCs are moving into.

  • Online language learning: Companies providing online and mobile software to learn foreign languages or English as a second language. Firms in this category that have received smart money VC deals include Mindsnacks, Duolingo, and Open English. 
  • Teacher-student collaboration & communication: These companies connect students and teachers through online and mobile software to share content, manage assignments, and communicate both in and out of the classroom. Firms that have received smart money investments include Piazza, Instructure, Remind, and Edmodo.
  • Education data and analytics: Companies providing data analytics software and solutions in and around the education industry and student performance. This category encompasses a few firms that have received smart money funding, including Civitas Learning and Declara.
  • Coding and programming education: Companies offering digital offerings aimed at coding, programming, or engineering skills and techniques. Companies with smart money VC backing include Codecademy, One Month, and Bloc.
  • MOOCs & online classrooms – Companies offering free or accredited online courses or tutorials in assorted subject areas. Two companies in this area with smart money VC funding are Udemy and Coursera.
  • Tutoring and Test Prep: Companies offering tutors, textbooks, notes, or study materials for specific standardized tests. Smart money VC companies include WyZantand Desire2Learn.
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Looking at the Dark Side of the Net

Etay Maor, IBM

Etay Maor, IBM

Wired recently reported that hackers posted a “data dump, 9.7 gigabytes in size… to the dark web using an Onion address accessible only through the Tor browser.” The data included names, passwords, addresses, profile descriptions and several years of credit card data for 32 million users of Ashley Madison, a social network billing itself as the premier site for married individuals seeking partners for affairs.

“I want to show you the dark side of the net,” Etay Maor told me when we met last month at the IBM offices in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He then proceeded to give me a tour of the Internet’s underground, where cyber criminals and hackers exchange data, swap tips, and offer free and for-fee services. “Information sharing is a given on the dark side,” said Maor, “but for the good guys, it’s not that easy.”

Maor is a senior fraud prevention strategist at IBM and has watched the dark side of the Web at RSA, where he led the cyber threats research lab, and later at Trusteer, a cybersecurity startup which IBM has acquired in 2013 for a reported $1 billion. His focus is cybercrime intelligence, specifically malware—understanding how it is developed and the networks over which it is distributed. Maor is an expert on how cyber criminals think and act and shares his knowledge with IBM’s customers and also with the world at large by speaking at conferences and blogging at securityintelligence.com.

The Web is like an iceberg divided into three segments, each with its own cluster of hangouts for cyber criminals and their digital breadcrumbs. The tip of the iceberg is the “Clear Web” (also called the Surface Web), indexed by Google and other search engines. The very large body of the iceberg, submerged under the virtual water, is the “Deep Web”—anything on the Web that’s not accessible to the search engines (e.g., your bank account). Within the Deep Web lies the “Dark Web,” a region of the iceberg that is difficult to access and can be reached only via specialized networks.

Maor first demonstrated to me how much cybercrime-related information is available on the Clear Web. Simply by searching for spreadsheets with the word “password” in them, you can get the default password list for many types of devices and other things and places of interest to criminals. There is easily accessible information that may have been posted to the Web innocently or by mistake. But there is also a lot of compromised information (e.g., stolen email addresses and their passwords) available on legitimate websites that provide a Web location for dumping data.

Then there are forums for criminals, some masquerading as a benign “hacking community” or “security research forum,” promoting themselves like any other business and/or community, including a Facebook page, and covering their costs or even making some money by displaying ads. One such forum had 1,200 other people accessing it when Maor showed it to me, demonstrating how, with a few clicks of the mouse, you can find lists of stolen credit card numbers including all the requisite information about the card holder.

Maor proceeded to introduce me to Tor, the most popular specialized network providing anonymity for its users, including participants in the underground economy of the Dark Web.  It was developed in the 1990s with the purpose of protecting U.S. intelligence communications online by researchers at the US Naval Research Lab which released the code in 2004 under a free license. It has 2.5 million daily users, some with legitimate reasons to protect their identities, and others who are engaged in criminal activities.

Tor is based on Onion routing, where messages are encapsulated in layers of encryption. The encrypted data is transmitted through a series of network nodes called onion routers, each of which “peels” away a single layer, uncovering the data’s next destination. The sender remains anonymous because each intermediary knows only the location of the immediately preceding and following nodes. The final node in the chain, the “exit node,” decrypts the final layer and delivers the message to the recipient.

While Tor is used by people with legitimate reasons to hide their identity, it (and similar networks) also facilitates a thriving underground economy. This is where you can buy firearms, drugs, fake documents, prescription drugs or engage in pedophilia networks, human trafficking, and organ trafficking. Maor paraphrases Oscar Wilde: “Give a man a mask and he will show his true face.”

Tor is also home to rapidly growing “startups,” offering fraud-as-a-service. A decade ago, says Maor, cybercrime “was one-man operation.  Today, it’s teamwork.”  Furthermore, the whole process, from coding the malware to distributing it to working with money mules, can be easily outsourced.  Everything a cybercriminal might need is now available on the underground forums, some components of the process as a free download, others as a for-fee service, including cloud-based services with guaranteed service level agreements (SLAs). The menu of cybercrime options has grown beyond financial fraud tools, to include advanced targeting tools, Remote Access Tools (RATs), and health care and insurance fraud tools and services.

The explosion of data about us, our lives and our workplaces on the Clear Web has helped the denizens of the Dark Web circumvent traditional online defenses such as passwords. “Fifteen years ago,” says Maor, “it took a lot of work to breach a company. Today, I can go on Linkedin and find out exactly what is the structure of the company I’m interested in.” Knowledge of the reporting structure of a specific company helps criminals’ “social engineering” efforts, manipulating people into performing certain compromising actions or divulging confidential information. Once criminals get to know their targets (e.g., by connecting on Linkedin), the victims may open an email or attachment that will infect their computer and provide the desired access to the company’s IT infrastructure.

Cyber criminals are taking advantage of the abundance of data on the Web and its success at connecting and networking over 2 billion people around the world. 80% of cyber attacks are driven by highly organized crime rings in which data, tools and expertise are widely shared, according to a UN study on organized crime, generating $445 billion in illegal profits and brokering one billion-plus pieces of personally identifiable information annually.

Data and networking—aren’t they also great tools in the fight against cybercrime? Not so much. Corporations and security firms have been reluctant to share cybersecurity intelligence. Only 15% of respondents to a recent survey said that “participating in knowledge sharing” is a spending priority.

There have been some efforts to change that, such as the establishment of industry-specific Information Sharing and Analysis Centers (ISACs) and the cross-industry National Council of ISACs.  The Department of Homeland Security and other government agencies are working to promote specific, standardized message and communication formats to facilitate the sharing of cyber intelligence in real time. The Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act (CISA), a bill creating a framework for companies and federal agencies to coordinate against cyberattacks, is being debated in Congress.

Alejandro Mayorkas, the Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security recently said: “Today’s threats require the engagement of our entire society. This shared responsibility means that we have to work with each other in ways that are often new for the government and the private sector. This means that we also have to trust each other and share information.”

IBM has taken a big step towards greater engagement and information sharing when it launched in April the IBM X-Force Exchange. It is a threat intelligence sharing platform where registered users can mine IBM’s data to research security threats, aggregate cyber intelligence, and collaborate with their peers. IBM says the exchange has quickly grown to 7,500 registered users, identifying in real-time sophisticated cybercrime campaigns. “I’m a fan,” security guru Bruce Schneier responded when I asked him about X-Force Exchange.

“The security industry must share information, all the time, in real time,” says Maor. “It’s a change of mindset, but it has to be done if we want to have some sort of edge against the criminals.”

Originally published on Forbes.com

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Google and Alphabet: Invention–and Commerical Success–is not Enough

Google-Alphabet-business-628x330

It looks like most of the publications and pundits of the world had something to say about the surprise-of-the-decade: Google’s transformation into Alphabet (Techmeme provides a sample here). For me, the numerous questions they posed only triggered further questions:  Is the new holding company going to be like Berkshire Hathaway, or GE, or AT&T or an early retirement playground for Page and Brin, playing God instead of golf? Is Larry Page saying he does not want to be Bill Gates or does he want to be Thomas Edison Plus? Is it just a simple “re-org,” so typical of large and lumbering companies, masquerading as an “unconventional move”?

In his post (not in a conventional press release) announcing the surprising metamorphosis, Larry Page made sure to remind us that “As Sergey and I wrote in the original founders letter 11 years ago, ‘Google is not a conventional company. We do not intend to become one.’”

Google, now Alphabet, is indeed an unconventional company in many respects, not the least of which is that the aforementioned founders hold 54% of the stock’s voting rights, giving them full control of the company. But at its core, I would argue, it’s a conventional company in a conventional business.

“Invention is not enough,” Page has said (see James Altucher’s post). “You have to combine both things: invention and innovation focus, plus the company that can commercialize things and get them to people.”

For Page and Brin, the key invention was a better search engine. But they brilliantly coupled it, with the help of the bright people they hired, with two other inventions that made that original invention a commercial success: Developing their own computing infrastructure capable of handling Brontobyte Data and a completely new approach to selling advertising.

By relying on advertising for its livelihood (it still accounts for over 90% of Google’s revenues), Google has become a conventional media company. It has enjoyed the growing stream of advertising dollars shifting from print and other channels to online. But it will be the victim of its own success: As online advertising becomes more dominant, growth will slow and Google’s fortunes will rise and fall with the advertising market which typically follows the rise and fall of economy (online advertising in the U.S., growing at 13%, already accounts for 28% of the overall advertising market which will grow only 3.2% this year).

In addition, relying on a segment of the advertising market which is completely dependent on ever-changing technology is a challenge in and of itself, as we have already seen in the ups and downs of display advertising and the shift from desktop to mobile. If some bright young entrepreneur (or a PhD student) finds tomorrow a way to transmit advertising to our brains without the help of devices and the Internet and we readily accept it in exchange for some new, can’t-live-without service, there will be no Google as we know it. Ditto if that proverbial kid in the garage will invent the real “disruption,” a new way to promote companies and their offerings, without what we have called “advertising” for centuries.

That may happen tomorrow or may not happen for a long time, so Page and Brin will continue to have the funds to fuel their ambitions. It’s just that now they will not have to deal at all with the day-to-day management of what has become for them a boring cash cow.

Brin has already done that for a number of years, focusing entirely on “moonshots.” But Page apparently wanted to prove to himself in 2011 (not to the world—he probably doesn’t care much about other people’s opinions) that he can also be a CEO of a large company and could make it re-invent itself. In this (the re-invention part) he completely failed. It may not be a coincidence that we learned of the final demise of Google’s grand social experiment, Page’s attempt to out-Facebook Facebook, just before the surprise Alphabet announcement. (It may also not be a coincidence that the announcement came on the 20th anniversary of When Larry Met Sergey, the first milestone in the official Google history timeline).

The failures are insignificant light of the history Page and Brin have made by giving millions of people around the world, in exchange for their data, very useful tools, at no cost. But brilliant inventions turned into commercial success, however, are not enough for the likes of Page and Brin and they never liked where the money supporting their free services came from, channeling (probably preceding) Jeff Hammerbacher’s sentiment: “The best minds of my generation are thinking about how to make people click ads.” Their version of a mid-life crisis is to remove themselves from their very successful one-trick advertising pony and immerse themselves in attempting to make very big history or Brontobyte history.

Page and Brin are sometimes mentioned—and explained—together with Amazon’s Jeff Bezos as the result of Montessori education (see here and here). But I think there is something much more important at the root of Page, Brin, and Bezos’s ambitions and successful enterprises. In the words of Harry Louis Sullivan, describing Chicago in 1875:

“Big” was the word. “Biggest” was preferred, and “the biggest in the world” was the braggart phrase on every tongue. Chicago had had the biggest conflagration “in the world.” It was the biggest grain and lumber market “in the world.” It slaughtered more hogs than any other city “in the world.” It was the greatest railroad center, the greatest this, and the greatest that… what they said was true; and had they said, in the din, we are the crudest, rawest, most savagely ambitious dreamers and would-be doers in the world, that also might be true… These men had vision. What they saw was real, they saw it as destiny.

Continuing an American tradition (how “unconventional”), Page, Brin, and Bezos saw “big” as their destiny. Page and Brin named their company after a very big number. Bezos chose the largest river in the world to stand for “the everything store.” But Bezos has taken a different route to world domination, one that is not depended on advertising and using us as the product, but on changing the way we buy and sell goods and services, inventing new ways to consume while driving down the cost of consumption. His one-trick pony, selling books online, has metamorphosed into selling everything, including computer services, serving as a platform for other sellers, creating content, designing devices, and more.

Page has said “especially in technology, we need revolutionary change, not incremental change, “and “I think as technologists we should have some safe places where we can try out new things and figure out the effect on society.” Bezos believes in incremental change and doesn’t talk much about Amazon’s impact on society. In about ten years, we should have a better idea of which approach—Alphabet’s or Amazon’s—has left a bigger and more positive impact on the world.

An earlier version of this psot was published on Forbes.com

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