John Markoff on automation, jobs, Deep Learning and AI limitations

markoff640My sense, after spending two or three years working on this, is that it’s a much more nuanced situation than the alarmists seem to believe. Brynjolfsson and McAfee, and Martin Ford, and Jaron Lanier have all written about the rapid pace of automation. There are two things to consider: One, the pace is not that fast. Deploying these technologies will take more time than people think. Two, the structure of the workforce may change in ways that means we need more robots than we think we do, and that the robots will have a role to play. The other thing is that the development of the technologies to make these things work is uneven.

Right now, we’re undergoing a rapid acceleration in pattern recognition technologies. Machines, for the first time are learning how to recognize objects; they’re learning how to understand scenes, how to recognize the human voice, how to understand human language. That’s all happening, no question that the advances have been dramatic and it’s largely happened due to this technique called deep learning, which is a modern iteration of the artificial neural nets, which of course have been around since the 1950s and even before.

What hasn’t happened is the other part of the AI problem, which is called cognition. We haven’t made any breakthroughs in planning and thinking, so it’s not clear that you’ll be able to turn these machines loose in the environment to be waiters or flip hamburgers or do all the things that human beings do as quickly as we think. Also, in the United States the manufacturing economy has already left, by and large. Only 9 percent of the workers in the United States are involved in manufacturing.

There’s this wonderful counter situation to the popular belief that there will be no jobs. The last time someone wrote about this was in 1995 when a book titled The End of Work predicted this. The decade after that, the US economy grew faster than the population for the next decade. It’s not clear to me at all that things are going to work out the way they felt.

The classic example is that almost everybody cites this apparent juxtaposition of Instagram—thirteen programmers taking out a giant corporation, Kodak, with 140,000 workers. In fact, that’s not what happened at all. For one thing, Kodak wasn’t killed by Instagram. Kodak was a company that put a gun to its head and pulled the trigger multiple times until it was dead. It just made all kinds of strategic blunders. The simplest evidence of that is its competitor, Fuji, which did very well across this chasm of the Internet. The deeper thought is that Instagram, as a new?age photo sharing system, couldn’t exist until the modern Internet was built, and that probably created somewhere between 2.5 and 5 million jobs, and made them good jobs. The notion that Instagram killed both Kodak and the jobs is just fundamentally wrong…

…What worries me about the future of Silicon Valley, is that one-dimensionality, that it’s not a Renaissance culture, it’s an engineering culture. It’s an engineering culture that believes that it’s revolutionary, but it’s actually not that revolutionary. The Valley has, for a long time, mined a couple of big ideas…

…In fact, things are slowing down. In 2045, it’s going to look more like it looks today than you think.

Source: Edge

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Hype Curve of (Hardware) Neural Networks

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Source: Olivier Temam

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Text Analytics: Inaugural Speeches of All U.S. Presidents (Infographic)

presidential-speech-textanalytics-infographic.

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The CDO Interview: Digital Transformation at CVS Health

Brian Tilzer, SVP and CDO, CVS Health

Brian Tilzer, SVP and CDO, CVS Health

CVS Health has recently opened a new Digital Innovation Lab in Boston. Enabling digital access to healthcare and related services anytime and anywhere is a key component in the company’s transformation into a multi-faceted healthcare provider.

CVS also announced plans to expand its physical footprint by acquiring for $1.9 billion Target’s 1,660 pharmacies and 80 clinics. These will be added to its existing 7,800 retail drugstores and nearly 1,000 walk-in medical clinics. CVS also acts as pharmacy benefits manager for more than 70 million plan members and provides specialty pharmacy services. Rapidly expanding its portfolio—last month it acquired Omnicare Inc., a provider of pharmacy services, for $12.7 billion—CVS moved up to number 10 on this year’s Fortune 500 list with $139.4 billion in 2014 revenues.

Successful transformation from a drugstore chain to a provider of innovative approaches to delivering healthcare services takes a lot of moving parts, not least of which is information technology. CVS highlighted the digital dimension of this transformation when it hired Brian Tilzer in February 2013 as senior vice president and its first Chief Digital Officer (CDO), to “develop and lead teams” driving the company’s “digital innovation efforts.”

Tilzer’s IT experience goes all the way back to the 1960s, when his mother worked as a programmer for Equitable Life Insurance. Later, she taught her very young son how to write programs for the Apple II. This got Tilzer his first job in retail, showing customers at his local computer store what they could do with the personal computer.

What followed was a career as a technology and business strategy consultant, a senior vice president of strategy and business development at Linens n Things, and six years in senior eCommerce roles at Staples. Now Tilzer is defining the CDO role for CVS Health.

CVS was ahead of many other companies at the time as there were only 225 CDOs at the end of 2012, according to the CDO club. That number is estimated to grow by 800% to 2,000 by the end of this year. Late last year, Korn Ferry predicted that CDOs will be among the most in-demand C-level positions in 2015 and IDC predicted that by 2020, “60% of CIOs in global organizations will be supplanted by the Chief Digital Officer (CDO) for the delivery of IT-enabled products and digital services.”

At the MIT Sloan CIO Symposium last month, Tilzer participated in a panel discussion titled “Leading Digital: A Manifesto for IT and Business Executives.” Also on the panel was Michael Nilles, CIO of the Schindler Group and CEO of Schindler Digital Business.  A global provider of elevators, escalators and related services, the Schindler Group has opted to entrust its CIO with a business unit responsible for connecting its products via the Internet of Things and providing its 20,000 field service employees with a “digital tool case.”

At the Symposium’s panel discussion, Nilles argued strongly for having only one executive perform the CIO and CDO roles, implying that CIOs are not worth their salt if they can’t take on themselves the CDO role.

CVS Health proves Nilles wrong. Its CIO, Stephen Gold, “has one of the best resumes in IT,” according to Forbes contributor Peter High. Gold is focused on IT transformation, which in a company moving rapidly to expand its business portfolio and physical footprint, is a very broad and critical “focus.” CDO responsibilities would probably be just a distraction for him. Answering Nilles in the Symposium panel discussion, Tilzer stressed the importance of having a senior executive in charge of digital, explaining that this is a new marketing channel and an opportunity to engage customers like never before.

Different companies, given their unique business and competitive situation, would respond differently to the challenge of who to entrust with CDO responsibilities. Some would create a completely new business unit and would have the CIO run it in addition to his or her traditional IT responsibilities, as Schindler did. Other companies may combine the CIO and CDO responsibilities in one executive or in one team, but will not create a separate business unit. And some companies, like CVS Health, may opt for a clear division of responsibilities.

“We have separate teams but one team mentality,” Tilzer told me on the sidelines of the Symposium. “We challenge each other in healthy ways. We want to move fast and they want to be secure. We have to take care to do both,” he added.

Tilzer’s team is charged with figuring out what CVS’s customers want and has the expertise to design online experiences to meet these needs. They write the business requirements, and the IT team, with the knowledge of what tools to use and the right software development skills, builds the solution. “The relationship is seamless, we tend to start with the customer and IT tends to start with the technology but it’s got to come together,” said Tilzer.

One could think about the CDO as the chief customization officer. “Digital is the place where all the services CVS provides can come together,” said Tilzer, “connecting our customers and their families with what we do.” And just like information technology, “digital” touches everything today. Tilzer: “My job would be a lot easier if I was trying to build digital CVS, a separate team or unit. What I’m trying to do is to weave digital experiences and technologies into every aspect of our customers’ experience. This requires us to closely collaborate with other [functions].”

One area of collaboration across the CDO team, IT, and marketing is analytics. In the past, data was used primarily to justify projects. But now, “the bigger idea is to use data to personalize experiences,” according to Tilzer.  IT builds the tools that Tilzer’s team use to make customers’ experiences as relevant as possible. At the same time, his team needs to work with marketing to ensure the personalized messages to customers they develop support the overall communication strategy for the company.

Tilzer has on his team digital strategists, “people who figure out what program we should go after and what great things we should do for our customers.” Other members of the team are product managers who develop a road map of features and functions to meet the digital strategy; and user experience experts, designing the look and feel of the digital product and working with marketing to ensure compliance with the brand.

One reason for establishing the Digital Innovation Lab in Boston is to expand the pool of talent Tilzer can tap. But the key motivation for opening the lab is to develop an innovation ecosystem. “We are trying to accelerate our rate of innovation,” Tilzer told me. “We need to explore best-of-breed third party partners, bring them into our world, figure out how they can be combined with our digital experiences and test it rapidly with our consumers.”

In Boston, observed Tilzer, “the intersection between technology and healthcare is very strong.” The Digital Innovation Lab is located half way between the Longwood medical area and the Kendal Square technology hub across the river in Cambridge. “We don’t need to do everything ourselves,” Tilzer said.

Originally published on Forbes.com

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The Price Declines Behind the Explosion of Data

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SoftwarePrice

CamerasPrice

CellPhoneSerivicePrice

Source: BloombergBusiness

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How Much Will You Pay to Protect Your Data?

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Source: Harvard Business Review

See also: ‘We The People Have A Lot Of Work To Do’ Says Schneier In A Must-Read Book On Security And Privacy

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Mobile is Eating the World (Slideshare)

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Joi Ito on Open Hardware and Why Bio is the New Digital

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnHD8gvccpI?rel=0]

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Big Data Jobs: Salaries and Top Industries

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Source: Where Big Data Jobs Are In 2015 – Midyear Update

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Facebook is in a category all by itself (#dataviz)

FacebookByItself

Venturebeat.com:

Findings in a new report released by Verto Analytics: 222 million U.S. Facebook users tend to spend 14 hours per month in the company’s app. (That’s 335,000 years worth of time, by the way.) Google reaches 228 million U.S. users, but they spend a little less than four hours a month using the company’s services. Add in the company’s video giant YouTube, which captures about five hours of its users’ attention monthly, and Google still only has a little less than nine — five hours less. Which means in a user-and-time chart, Facebook is all by itself. This matters mostly because in a world of free services in which we — the great device-using unwashed — are the product, and ad dollars drive innovation and competition, reach times engagement equals revenue. In short: Attention winners become financial winners.

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